Amid tighter economic and financial conditions, Moody’s Investors Service is reducing its price expectations for certain base metals while boosting its call for precious metals commodities.
The rating agency reduced its 12-month price assumptions for various metals, including aluminum, zinc, iron and coal.
The action reflects “demand growth easing amid a global economic slowdown, inflation and tight financial policies,” which will curb manufacturing and construction activity, it said.
Moody’s forecast that growth for the G20 will come in at 2.1% for 2023, and 2.2% in 2024, down from 2.7% last year.
“Manufacturing activity and trade flows will be weak among the advanced economies, weighing on demand and limiting any price rebound across the different segments. Expanded supplies for zinc, aluminum, nickel and iron ore also weigh on prices for those commodities,” it said.
Moody’s raised its price assumptions for gold and silver “based on persistent inflation and rising costs.”
“Central banks’ increasing inclination to keep interest rates steady, a weaker U.S. dollar and Russia’s war against Ukraine all support gold prices,” it said.
Longer term, Moody’s noted that “demand will keep rising and supporting prices for metals necessary for energy transition as the world increasingly adopts renewable power and related technologies.”