U.S. companies will be spending heavily on artificial intelligence, driving higher capital spending through 2026, Fitch Ratings says.
In a new report, the rating agency forecast that the aggregate capex margin for North American companies will rise to 7.7% this year, up from 7.2% last year — before easing slightly to 7.4% in 2026.
These forecasts are 40 basis points higher than they were six months ago, and 80 to 90 bps higher than they were 12 months ago, despite the gloomier economic outlook, Fitch noted.
“U.S. corporate capital spending will remain elevated through 2026 due to artificial intelligence and rising energy demand, and may accelerate further with recent executive orders and the tax and spending bill,” it said.
The utilities sector is expected to lead the increase in capex, driven by investments to modernize the existing power grid, add capacity to meet growing demand from data centres and support the transition to cleaner energy.
Driven by these trends, Fitch has raised its capex assumptions for the sector. It now expects spending by electric utilities to rise by 15% to 20% year over year in 2025.
Additionally, data centre operators and firms such as Amazon are expected to contribute to higher corporate capex.
Fitch noted there is also upside risk to its forecasts driven by recent U.S. policy changes.
“The tax and spending bill passed on July 4, which includes provisions such as 100% bonus depreciation and increased interest expense deductions, is beneficial to capex-intensive sectors and could incentivize more investment by U.S. companies,” it said — as do recent executive orders aimed at supporting the development of AI and data centre infrastructure.
The U.S. budget bill also phases out tax credits for wind and solar projects more quickly, which may drive increased spending by renewable energy companies seeking to accelerate existing projects to qualify for those credits before they expire.