Thanks in part to increased market volatility that has accompanied the conflict in the Middle East, the major U.S. financial exchanges are expected to report higher first-quarter revenues, according to Moody’s Ratings.
The big four exchange operators — CME Group, Inc., Cboe Global Markets, Inc., Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and Nasdaq Inc. — are all on deck to report earnings next week.
In a new report, Moody’s said it’s expecting their results to be buoyed by “a surge in net transaction and clearing fees” compared with both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the same quarter a year ago.
In aggregate, it expects the exchanges to report a 27% increase in transaction and clearing fees, on a year-over-year basis, and a 24% quarter-over-quarter rise.
“The U.S.-Iran conflict contributed to significant market activity during the quarter,” the rating agency noted. Trading volumes for nearly all asset classes reached highs “as renewed uncertainty related to the conflict resulted in bouts of market volatility” that drove trading, it added.
“Volumes in cash equities, which generally have lower revenue capture and profit margins, reached the highest levels ever,” it said — and trading volumes in U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds also reached record levels.
Additionally, exchange-traded derivatives, which carry higher margins, “were also much stronger,” it noted, “supported by growth in commodities (especially energy) and interest rate volumes.”
Trading and clearing fees represent around half of the exchanges’ total revenues, it said.