Maybe Jean Charest will call a November election. Re-elected in 2007 with a minority, Charest has managed to turn “cohabitation” — his word for surviving in a minority situation — to his advantage.

In the last election, his Quebec Liberals won the most votes in a virtual three-way tie: Liberals, 33%; Action démocratique du Québec, 31%; Parti Québécois, 28%. The PQ changed leaders soon after the election, when the seasoned Pauline Marois replaced the hapless André Boisclair. This then allowed the PQ to trade places with Mario Dumont’s second-place ADQ.

There has, however, been a dramatic change in recent months. Marois’ PQ is holding steady at about 31%. But Dumont’s ADQ supporters seem to have deserted to Charest’s Liberals. With ADQ support below 20%, recent polls indicate the Liberals now hold a clear lead — as high as 41% in May.

Asked last month whether he was tempted to call a fall election, Charest said no. But as Ralph Klein, the former Alberta premier, was fond of saying: when a politician says maybe, he means yes; when he says no, he means maybe. So, while the signs are encouraging, Charest won’t tip his hand now.

Charest has remained visible this summer at festivities marking Quebec City’s 400th anniversary. In the capital region, his Liberals now lead the ADQ, which did so well last time, sweeping all but four seats here.

And so it goes. The premier has said he is too busy for an election until after October, when France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and his Italian wife, Carla Bruni, will arrive. Sarkozy will attend the summit of the Francophonie, the 54-member club of governments in countries in which French is spoken.

Charest is also counting on Sarkozy to sign a Quebec/France agreement on manpower mobility, calling for mutual recognition to allow Quebecers to work in France and people from France to work in Quebec.

Sarkozy is the current holder of the rotating presidency of the European Union: his tenure there coincides with efforts by Charest to convince Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the other premiers of the value in a new EU/Canada economic partnership.

As well, the failure of the Doha round of trade talks leaves Europe open to such bilateral arrangements. During Sarkozy’s fall trip to Canada, he will represent Europe at the annual Europe/Canada Summit, at which a start on an EU/Canada deal is expected.

Armed with the mobility agreement and a commitment to a bilateral partnership with Europe, two ideas that Charest initiated, the temptation to call an election could be great. Marois counters that the minority government isn’t working because Charest has rejected PQ proposals, such as making spousal support tax-free. Dumont charges Charest’s team is a do-nothing government.

But that seems to be what Quebec voters want. In Charest’s first mandate, from 2003 to 2007, his party broke records for voter dissatisfaction. Labour unions took to the streets in protest. Parents were upset that Quebec’s $5-a-day child care now costs $7. The lifting of Hydro-Québec’s freeze on electricity rates and the failure of the Charest government to live up to its promise to cut income taxes by $1 billion a year turned voters against him.

Nevertheless, Charest won re-election in 2007, as dissatisfied voters turned to the ADQ, leaving the PQ behind. Since then, Charest’s ministers have criss-crossed the province with good-news announcements. At the same time, Charest has steered clear of controversy. As Jean Chrétien explains in his autobiography, My Years as Prime Minister: “To be frank, politics is about wanting power, getting it, exercising it and keeping it.”

Charest is at the fourth stage. IE