Saskatchewan’s long-awaited economic boom — the Saskaboom, as it is affectionately known — still has a lot of forward energy, despite the slowdown in some parts of the country.

At a recent news conference, Premier Brad Wall reeled off numerous statistics and economic indicators that show that Saskatchewan is either leading the nation or in second place — including retail sales and wholesale trade, exports and economic growth, housing starts and building permits, and wage and employment growth.

In addition, Saskatchewan is seeing record or near-record prices for its oil and natural gas, potash and uranium, and grains and oilseeds. The result is a huge boom in oil and gas exploration, with record land sales, $8 billion in potash expansions announced or launched, and new potash mines proposed, and projected farm revenue that is double that of the previous year.

“Next Year Country is now,” Wall has said, referring to that mythical time in the future that Saskatchewan has long aspired to, when boom times finally prompt the sons and daughters that have left for greener pastures to come home. And, in many ways, the premier is right.

Never has the province’s economy fired on so many cylinders for such an extended period of time. All of the province’s major economic drivers, with the exception of the livestock sector, are enjoying the best prices and highest levels of activity in the province’s history.

But can these happy days last? And is there any downside to the current economic boom?

Already, there are signs that the bloom is off the rose in the commodities markets. Oil prices have come off their all-time highs and seem to be settling in around US$120 a barrel. Natural gas prices have moderated after peaking at about $13 per gigajoule this past spring.

Even potash prices are coming back to reality. Shares in the Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world’s largest fertilizer company, were trading at $160 in July after peaking at $240 in June, when it had the largest market capitalization of any company on the Toronto Stock Exchange. PCS was also struggling with a strike by 500 workers at three of its underground mines in August.

The strike at PCS and another by about 200 Grain Services Union members at Regina-based Viterra Inc. (formerly the Saskatchewan Wheat Pool Inc.) underscores a growing sentiment among the province’s unionized workforce: share the wealth. With the province’s largest companies posting record prices and profits, unionized workers are demanding a bigger piece of the pie. Those expectations have been boosted by the recent settlement with the province’s registered nurses, who negotiated a whopping 36% wage increase over four years.

And while provincial wages, on average, continue to increase at the rate of 5% annually, compared with 3% nationally, many workers in Saskatchewan believe they are not receiving enough when it comes to the fruits of their labours.

Job growth in the province, which has been leading the nation for about a year, took a sharp drop of 6,200 jobs from June to July. And although 6,300 more jobs were created in July than in the same period last year, the pace of job growth has fallen by half.

Housing prices, which have more than doubled in the past two years, appear to have peaked, according to a national study released in August by Merrill Lynch Canada Inc. It reported that housing prices in Saskatoon were overvalued by 50% and Regina’s by 48%, the most overvalued housing in the nation (based on the relationship between salaries and housing prices).

The high cost of housing has also given rise to fears of a housing crisis. With housing affordability eroding and rental rates rising dramatically, a growing number of Saskatchewan residents cannot afford to have a roof over their heads.

So, does this mean that Saskaboom is heading for Saskabust? Is the dream of Next Year Country, rather than being the reality, fated to return over and over again, like Groundhog Day in the Bill Murray movie of the same name?

No, the fundamentals of the province’s economy are strong and should remain so for the foreseeable future.

But, as we all know, the foreseeable future is not a long period of time. As the North American economy teeters on the brink of recession, it’s not reasonable to think that a resources- and commodity-based, export-oriented economy such as Saskatchewan’s can emerge unscathed. IE