Amid an abrupt shift in demographic trends, Statistics Canada is now projecting that the population may top 57 million by 2075, down from its prior projection of over 59 million from a year ago.
The national statistical agency released its latest demographic projections for the next 50 years, which provide low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios for the population — signalling a significant change from the same exercise a year ago, with its projections down under each scenario.
In the low-growth scenario, Statistics Canada now projects that the population would rise from 41.7 million as of July 1, 2025 to 44 million by 2075. In the medium scenario, it projects a rise to 57.4 million, and in the high-growth scenario to 75.8 million.
By comparison, its previous estimates projected that the low-growth scenario would put the population at 45.2 million by 2074. For the medium-growth scenario, it projected the population to hit 59.3 million; and, under the high-growth scenario, the agency said the population was projected to reach 80.8 million by 2074.
These projections are not forecasts, the agency stressed, rather they reflect possible growth outcomes based on recent demographic trends.
And, since the previous projections were issued, Canada has seen a sharp shift in some of those trends — including the population shrinking at a record pace in the third quarter of 2025, largely on the strength of revised immigration policy, which has sought to curb the share of the population that’s comprised of temporary residents.
“In the short term, a substantial reduction in admissions of new permanent residents and a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents would result in much lower population growth than recently observed,” the agency said.
Alongside the recent shift in immigration trends, the latest projections also consider “long-term developments that have been identified as plausible through consultation with experts,” Statistics Canada said.
At the same time, fertility rates remain “historically low” the agency noted, and the long-term effects of the Covid pandemic remain “uncertain” it said, including the impact on life expectancy and internal migration trends.
In any scenario, Canada’s population is expected to age too — with the share of the population comprised of people over age 65 rising from 19.5% in 2025 to 22.6% in 2075 under Statistics Canada’s “slow-aging” scenario, and to 32.5% in the “fast-aging” scenario.
The population would age more quickly with lower fertility rates, low immigration of younger people, and longer lifespans; while the reverse of these trends would drive slower aging of the overall population.
The pace of the population’s aging is expected to slow after 2030, when the entire baby boomer cohort will have passed the age 65 mark, Statistics Canada said. However, the share aged 85 and over is expected to grow rapidly between 2031 and 2050, as the boomer cohort enters that age group.
Indeed, the share of the population over 85 is projected to increase from 951,833 people in 2025 to between 3.3 million by 2075 in the low-growth scenario, and 4.2 million in the high-growth scenario.
Under all scenarios, Ontario and Quebec would continue to be the most populous provinces over the next 25 years, the agency said — with Alberta expected to pass British Columbia for third place in almost all scenarios.
Additionally, it said that the share of the overall population that’s located in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Quebec is seen shrinking between 2025 and 2050 — while the share for Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta would increase under all scenarios.