Global carbon emissions rose in 2024, but the ratio of emissions to global GDP declined as economic growth outpaced the increase in overall emissions, Fitch Ratings says.
In a new report, the rating agency said the carbon intensity of world GDP — the ratio of carbon emissions to GDP — declined by 1.6% in 2024, as real GDP rose by 2.9% and carbon emissions increased by 1.2%.
For global emissions to start declining over the next couple of years, with global GDP expected to rise by 2.5% annually, the pace of decarbonization would need to double, Fitch said
“The pace of decarbonization is being held back by the growing share in world GDP of emerging markets — which are far more carbon intensive — and recently by a slowdown in improvements in global energy efficiency,” it noted.
According to the report, in 2024, emerging markets accounted for 42% of global GDP, but they represented 65% of global energy consumption and 70% of total emissions.
Emerging markets also account for all of the growth in global carbon emissions.
“Developed market emissions have been falling steadily since 2007 and are now back to where they were in 1970,” the report said.
But, as dirtier emerging markets grab a growing share of global GDP, that trend is slowing the pace of global decarbonization, even as the carbon intensity of emerging markets improves too.
Fitch also reported that the energy intensity of GDP — the ratio of energy consumption to GDP — was essentially unchanged last year, as overall energy consumption rose by 2.8% during the year.
“This reflected extreme weather, rapid growth in energy-intensive data centres related to the AI boom and a rebound in energy consumption in Europe as energy prices fell from earlier highs,” it said.