Globally, financial performance for the banking sector may be at, or near, its peak — and the rating outlook is dimming too, says Fitch Ratings.
In a report on Friday, the rating agency noted that credit rating upgrades for banks outpaced downgrades in 2025, and that trend is expected to continue this year. However, the positive ratings momentum is expected to slow, as the sector’s profit growth eases, and risks grow.
Over the past couple of years, the global banking sector has benefited from higher interest rates, which underpinned stronger financial performance — and banks’ ratings also got a boost from improvements in sovereign ratings, Fitch noted.
However, those positive forces are starting to fade.
“The boost to bank profitability from higher interest rates is levelling off in most markets,” Fitch noted.
Additionally, expectations for slower global economic growth “may also weigh on loan growth and asset quality in 2026,” it said. Downside risks are rising too, including geopolitical risks, weaker regulation, growing exposure to AI and crypto assets and the rise of private credit, it added.
Against that backdrop, the rating agency said that its rating outlooks for the global banking sector is now relatively balanced between negative and positive outlooks.
While rating upgrades are still expected to outnumber downgrades in 2026, “the positive balance is set to be weaker than in recent years, as risks to banks’ performance mount,” Fitch said.