The consensus outlook among chief economists at U.S. investment firms has brightened notably, according to the results of a flash poll published by the U.S. Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).
The industry trade group said its latest survey of chief economists revealed stronger forecasts for the U.S. economy since its full mid-year survey, published after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June.
The average forecast for real GDP growth this year came in at 1.5% in the flash survey, conducted between Sept. 18 and 29 — up 0.6 percentage points from the mid-year forecast.
The consensus forecast for 2026 was also stronger at 2.2%, an increase of 0.3 points from the previous projection.
For other metrics in the flash poll — inflation and the jobless rate — there was little change. Economists now expect a 4.5% unemployment rate this year, up 0.1 points from the prior forecast, and headline inflation of 3.2%, unchanged from June.
Since the mid-year forecast, the FOMC cut rates in September, and the flash poll found most economists now expect three cuts this year, with the Fed funds rate forecast to end 2025 in the 3.5% to 3.75% range — 25 basis points lower than the June outlook.
A minority of economists (18%) still expect just two cuts this year, with one more at the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting.
“Looking further into 2026, the majority of our economists surveyed expect the Fed funds rate to end 2026 in the 3%-4% range,” SIFMA reported. A minority (27%) expect the target range at the end of 2026 to be 2%-3%.