Global corporate dividend growth is expected to slow this year, according to new data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
In a research note, the firm forecasts that aggregate dividends will grow by 2.7% in 2026 to US$2.47 trillion, down from the 4.7% growth rate recorded in 2025.
“Macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade tensions, fluctuating interest rates, currency volatility and geopolitical conflicts, continue to weigh on corporate earnings and, by extension, dividend growth,” it said.
However, the slower growth rate aligns with longer-term trends, it noted.
“Since the post-Covid pandemic rebound, dividend growth has been moderating, reflecting a return to normalized levels of shareholder returns,” it said.
Indeed, the robust growth seen in 2025 far outpaced the initial forecast of 0.3% growth, “primarily driven by an unexpected surge in dividend payouts across Asia-Pacific,” S&P said.
“However, this pattern is unlikely to be replicated in 2026, and the moderating pace of dividend growth reflects broader market sentiment and economic conditions,” it noted.
Indeed, S&P is forecasting dividends to remain flat in developed Asia this year, while the U.S. is seen leading the way with 6.4% growth, and outlook for Europe is mixed.
By sector, the materials sector is seen leading the way, “powered by metal and gold miners’ dividend growth,” it said.