Institutional fixed-income investors may be a bit too complacent about inflation, cautions a study from Atlanta-based Invesco Ltd. published Monday.
The investment management firm’s inaugural global fixed-income study is based on interviews with 79 fixed-income specialists and chief investment officers (CIOs) in North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region.
The study finds that a majority (58%) of survey respondents believe the global economy is in recovery, but that it isn’t going to follow the typical path that “has historically occurred after an economic slump,” Invesco says in a news release.
Specifically, the majority of North American fixed-income specialists are not worried about inflation, according to the study, instead, they are expecting moderate growth, and little inflation risk.
“The big risk for investors is that they are underestimating inflation risk in a strong global economy,” says Rob Waldner, chief macro strategist at Invesco, in a statement.
The study also finds that investors expect to increase their allocations to core fixed-income portfolios in the next several years. Investors have been reducing their allocations to core fixed income over the past three years, the study says, but 63% expect to rotate back towards core fixed income over the next three years.
This return to core fixed-income is likely to be primarily funded from equity portfolios. “Investors still expect to allocate to alternative credit but at slower rates as appetite becomes constrained by higher prices and a reduced set of opportunities,” Invesco says.
Indeed, the study finds a strong appetite for alternative credit investments, such as bank loans and real-estate debt. Overall, respondents have allocated 19% of their fixed-income portfolios to alternative credit strategies; in North America, the allocation to alternatives is at 26%. Larger investors (those more than US$15 billion in assets under management) typically have higher allocations to alternative credits than smaller investors, the study notes.