For those tracking Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership, the middle week of February will likely be remembered as the most crucial few days in his political career.

Trudeau likely solidified enough political capital to carry him through the 2019 election, provided he can manage his power at home as well as he has on the world stage.

Canadians have learned not to under-estimate their prime minister. On the weekend before Trudeau flew to Washington D.C. to face President Donald Trump, there seemed to be a nervous optimism that Trudeau would be able to manage the mercurial president. In a classy gesture, Rona Ambrose, the interim Conservative leader, sent Trudeau a letter of support.

Still, Trudeau managed to exceed expectations at home and abroad. He secured public commitment from Trump not to tear up NAFTA, just “tweak” it, at least as far as Canada is concerned. According to a Nanos poll, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives surged four points, to nine, in a matter of days. And Trudeau won compliments around the world.

Mexico likely didn’t feel so happy, since Trudeau’s reception was also a signal it is on its own. No doubt there are back-channel talks going on with Mexico: Trudeau will need to find a way to ensure Mexico’s anger is not directed at Canada.

And the Canadian lumber, dairy and auto-parts sectors will remain nervous, as they should, until we all have a better idea of what “tweak” means.

Still, Trudeau accomplished everything he could possibly have expected in one visit to Washington D.C. Instigation of a roundtable on advancing the careers of women that Trump will chair was a master stroke. There was Trudeau, sitting on camera next to Ivanka Trump, looking very magnanimous and worldly, even if the president’s press secretary managed to get his name wrong.

Not only did he manage the mercurial and bullying Trump, he orchestrated, with the roundtable, some largesse from a president who badly needs redemption among female voters.

Trudeau followed that triumph with a strong speech before the European Parliament in support of the newly ratified trade ageement between Canada and the European Union. It amounted to a call to action to free traders everywhere to make sure ordinary people see the value of unfettered trade. A headline in Europe dubbed him the “Anti-Trump.”

Trump did his part in making Trudeau look good by going on to have a horrible week that included firing his new national security secretary and a meltdown of a press conference.

Trudeau will be able to run for re-election as the leader who can shield Canadians from the Donald.

In addition, some Conservative MPs seem to be doing their damndest to get Trudeau re-elected with their hysterical opposition to a parliamentary motion against Islamophobia or by laughing at Infrastructure Minister Amerjeet Sohi when the former bus driver was extending condolences about a bus driver murdered on the job in Winnipeg.

In all, Trudeau is in the most optimal position for a politician to be, more than two years before an election. But that doesn’t mean things can’t go wrong.

For one thing, the notion that Trump might not finish his term has moved from mere wishful thinking by detractors to the realm of possibility. Still a long shot, but possible.

If Trump is suddenly gone, Canadians might wonder why they need Trudeau.

Or, Canadians may decide their prime minister has become a little too high-falutin on the world stage, just as many did with his father before Pierre Trudeau’s government was reduced to a minority in 1972.

Trudeau will also need to worry about a backlash from Canadians as more refugees continue to spill over the border, in cities where supports may become strained, and in remote locations clearly unequipped to deal with the surge. In the same week that the Liberals surged in the polls, another poll showed one in four Canadians favoured a Trump-style crackdown on Islamic refugees.

Still, this was the week in which the 2019 election became Trudeau’s to lose.

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