Royal LePage is forecasting the aggregate price of a home in Canada will drop by 1% to $765,171 by the fourth quarter of 2023.
The real estate company says it expects prices to flatten in the second quarter and then modestly increase in the second half of the year, ending 2023 on an upward trajectory.
Its calculations show the median price of a single-family detached property will fall by 2% to $781,256 and condominiums will slide 1% to $568,933 by the end of next year.
Royal LePage attributes its predictions to declining affordability, which has been exacerbated by rising interest rates, and continued housing supply shortages, which are acting like a floor on home price declines.
It foresees homes in Vancouver remaining the most expensive in 2023, dipping only 1% next year to more than $1.2 million. Regina will be the most affordable of the places it studied as aggregate home prices will fall 1.5% to $361,495 by the end of 2023.
The Canadian Real Estate Association previously forecast home prices will increase 0.2% in 2023 to $721.814 in 2023.