Global credit growth is sitting at its lowest level since the global financial crisis, says a report published on Friday by, Fitch Ratings, indicating that most markets are well positioned to absorb systemic stress.
The report projects that median global real credit growth will be 2.5% in 2017, down slightly from 2.8% in 2016. As a result, the rating agency’s macro-prudential risk indicators (MPI scores) continue to point towards reduced vulnerability to systemic stress in most markets.
Overall, 76% of markets have MPI scores that indicate low vulnerability to systemic risk, the report says, and the “placid outlook for credit growth suggests this ratio will increase”.
The stabilization in global credit growth is being driven by improved credit performance in emerging markets (EMs), particularly Middle East and Africa and Latin America. “This reflects the recovery in EM demand, underpinned by the progress commodity producers have made following the 2014-2015 terms of trade shock,” the report says.
IT also notes that subdued credit growth is becoming more widespread.
According to the report, Fitch does not expect any markets to have real credit growth over 15% in 2017, with 42% of EMs and 64% of developed markets forecast to have low but positive credit growth of up to 5%.