Economy & Markets

The unemployment rate of 5.7% in December should be enough for the BoC to hike interest rates later in January, CIBC economist predicts

By Andy Blatchford |
Source: The Canadian Press

 

Job creation in 2017 reached a pace not seen in a calendar year since 2002, reduced the unemployment rate to its lowest mark in more than 40 years — and surely came as a profound relief to Canada's embattled federal finance minister.

Statistics Canada's job numbers Friday offered a year-end look at a healthy 2017 performance. The surprisingly strong run was capped off by a December report that led some forecasters to cement, or even move up, their predictions that the Bank of Canada would raise its benchmark interest rate, possibly as early as this month.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau, whose new year's resolutions likely include efforts to change the channel following a tumultuous political year he'd probably prefer to forget, also made a point of highlighting the jobs data.

In the second half of the year, Morneau was battered by controversy over a highly contentious tax-reform plan, stinging ethical questions over how he arranged his personal assets upon entering cabinet and conflict-of-interest allegations.

On Friday, he used Twitter to claim at least part of the credit for the federal Liberal government.

"These are the real results of a plan that's working," Morneau tweeted. "We did this together, Canada, and there's a lot more to do."

In December, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.7%, down from 5.9% the month before, to reach its lowest mark since comparable data became available in 1976. The rate fell as the economy generated 78,600 net new positions, including 23,700 full-time jobs.

Looking at 2017 as a whole, employment rose 2.3% for its fastest growth rate in 15 years. Over the past 12 months, the economy added 422,500 jobs with the gains driven by 394,200 new full-time positions, the agency's labour force survey said.

In December 2016, the unemployment rate was 6.9%, the report said. The last time the jobless rate was 5.8% was October 2007.

Several analysts said Friday's solid labour report might be enough to encourage Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz to introduce another interest-rate hike later this month. Poloz has raised the rate twice since the summer, citing the stronger economy.

"It looks like as much as Canadian economic growth has softened a little bit over the second half of the year, the labour market is just still rolling right on," said BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.

"We know the Bank of Canada is back into a rate-hike mode and they are pretty well data-dependent right now in terms of when and how quickly that pace of rate hikes is going to play out.

"This is pretty obviously one vote in favour of the bank certainly moving in March, if not bringing that forward to raising rates in January."

Still, Kavcic remains a little bit hesitant to predict that a rate increase at the Jan. 17 policy meeting is a sure thing.

He expects Poloz to carefully assess the findings in the Bank of Canada's business outlook survey, which will be released Monday. The central bank also might wait a little longer months into 2018 to analyze the economic impacts of new changes to mortgage stress tests, Kavcic added.

Other experts, however, think the December report will be enough to convince the central bank to raise the rate sooner rather than later.

"We think that today's report is enough to push governor Poloz into a rate hike later this month," CIBC economist Nick Exarhos wrote Friday in a research note to clients.

By region, Quebec and Alberta saw the biggest increases last month with each province adding more than 26,000 new jobs. Quebec's unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 4.9%, while Alberta's dropped 0.4 percentage points to 6.9%.

The December reading marked the 13th-straight month of job gains, however, about half of those positive numbers were within the survey's margin of error.

Looking back at 2017, factories saw employment increase 3.5%, while the services sector experienced a boost of 2%. The number of public-sector employees rose by 2.3% compared to a 1.8% increase in paid positions in the private sector.

In a separate report Friday, Statistics Canada says the country's merchandise trade deficit widened to $2.5 billion in November, compared to a $1.6-billion deficit the month before, as imports outgrew exports.

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