Plenty of federal budgets have slid quickly into oblivion over the years. This year’s edition may have the distinction of being deliberately written to disappear from public consciousness almost as quickly as it was tabled.

Less than a year ago, the Harper government finally won its long-coveted parliamentary majority by promising, among other things, a balanced budget a year ahead of schedule. So, that would mean the deficit would be gone in fiscal 2014-15, instead of the 2015-16 date previously promised. Understandably, there was much anticipation of this year’s budget on March 29.

The latest budget forecasts the federal deficit will go from an actual number of $33.4 billion in fiscal 2010-11 to an estimated $24.9 billion in 2011-12 (which just ended), to $21.1 billion in 2012-13, to $10.2 billion in 2013-14, and then to a shortfall of just $1.4 billion for 2014-15.

The latest fiscal forecast predicts a return to balanced budgets for 2015-16, with a surplus of $3.4 billion, to fulfil the Harper government’s long-standing promise.

Remember that the government had promised us during last May’s election that 2014-15 – a year early – would be the fiscal year we would have a deficit-free budget?

So far, there has been no explanation for the discrepancy. “The government is on track to return to balanced budgets in the medium term,” says a three-paragraph note in the lengthy budget, which got more attention for the plan to eliminate the penny than it did for the deficit.

When a government is forecasting dramatic deficit reduction, from the $21.1 billion for the fiscal year we are now in to $10.2 billion next year, it is hard to imagine why Ottawa can’t push a little harder and get rid of that remaining $1.4 billion in 2014-15.

Even Kevin Page, the parliamentary budget officer and no friend of the current government, now says Ottawa is well on its way to easily balancing its books in 2014-15.

So, why the lowballing? Page thinks federal spending for the fiscal year just ended will turn out to be billions of dollars less than the government had forecast in the March 29 budget. In other words, spending reduction is far more draconian than the government wants to let on. No sense upsetting people when there is no gain.

This would be a variation on the previous Liberal government’s strategy of lowballing surplus forecasts in the budget and then explaining to the voters that its policies were going even better than planned.

Another reason for the lowballing might be the other election promises the Harper government made last May. There was a pile of goodies promised at that time, with the condition that they would go into effect only once the budget is balanced.

Low and behold, the deficit will be eliminated and those goodies can be announced a few months before the October 2015 election in a “feel good” budget.

The federal budget has morphed into something far different than the strict spending-estimates document it once was. Former prime minister Louis St. Laurent used to insist that the budget be typed up by the finance minister himself so that no one, including his secretary, would have advance knowledge of Ottawa’s spending plans.

The budget now is a northern version of the U.S. state of the union address. It’s long on rhetoric and short on details. No need for budget secrecy now. Perhaps this is why the feds called it the Economic Action Plan 2012, not a budget.

“I dug deep in the annexes, I read between the lines and I discovered … well, not much,” Stefania Bartucci, research director at Ottawa-based Dawson Strategic, had written in her analysis of the 2012 budget, which she calls a “mystery lover’s budget.” But instead of a whodunnit, it’s more of a howdunnit. There is lots of bold talk about trade and competitiveness but few details.

What would replace the budget in the future? It would make sense to let whomever is in power have an annual “state of the federation” report on political and economic priorities. The actual spending document required by law could be jointly compiled by the Department of Finance and the parliamentary budget officer – the true budget.

We do, however, know that the penny is now toast. IE

© 2012 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.