It begins high in the rockies near Mount Robson as a mere trickle of melting snow. But, 1,375 kilometres later, after draining a quarter of British Columbia’s land mass, the Fraser River becomes a strategically vital natural asset.

Not only is it one of the world’s major salmon rivers, but the Fraser and the basin it drains is home to more than 2.9 million people – two-thirds of all British Columbians – and serves as the economic foundation of both the Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver. The value of economic development along its lower reaches alone is estimated to be about $50 billion.

Despite this, however, the Fraser has a dark secret: it’s an accident waiting to happen, one with the potential to rival the hurricane Katrina natural disaster that struck New Orleans in 2005.

Unfortunately, periodic warnings over the past decade or so about the potential catastrophic damage from a major Fraser River flood have been largely ignored. So, little has been done to raise dike heights or increase dredging – or both – especially on increasingly populated flood plains along its Lower Mainland reaches.

But a recent report by a coalition of Metro Vancouver municipalities and chambers of commerce may be a wakeup call. The report puts a dollar figure on this risk: $50 billion in economic development on the Lower Fraser is at risk unless all levels of government act together to address the issue. For example, many lower river dikes are not high enough to withstand a major spring flood. The bill for those upgrades is about $9 billion.

“With over 300,000 people in the flood plain – and another one million expected to live in the region by 2040 – the risks are too great to ignore,” says economist Dave Park, the report’s principal author.

The report is supported by two recent B.C. government papers that warn that rising sea levels caused by climate change mean that all but one of 15 dikes in the stretch between Hope and Mission are too low to withstand major flooding.

And that flooding is likely to occur much more often. The report puts the risk at about every 50 years vs traditional cycles of 200 to 500 years. In May 1948, one of the largest floods on record peaked at 15,200 feet per second, destroying 2,000 homes and resulting in the evacuation of 16,000 people.

Another 1948-scale flood would cause much more damage now because the flood plain holds vastly increased infrastructure, industry and population. Such a flood could isolate Vancouver’s port, as both Canadian Pacific and Canadian National railways run through the river’s flood plain, as does the Trans-Canada Highway and the primary B.C. Hydro power lines that serve Greater Vancouver.

The issue is complicated further by fragmented governance: 15 municipal governments, 29 First Nations and more than 20 federal or provincial ministries are involved in the Fraser’s administration.

“It is very important,” the report advises, “that a renewed, collaborative, multi-level government effort be undertaken to renew protection from floods.”

Until that happens, the Fraser is overflowing – with risk.

© 2014 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.