TD Economics says it has lowered its 2026 forecast for home sales and prices after weak performances over the past two quarters.
It now expects sales to fall 1.8% year over year and home prices to move 0.3% lower nationally.
Economist Rishi Sondhi says housing activity will likely take most of the year to recoup first-quarter losses, as sales remain constrained by a subdued economy, heightened uncertainty and ongoing cost of living pressures.
The report gave Ontario and B.C. the sharpest downgrades to sales and prices after “significant” first-quarter declines, as potential buyers in those provinces still face significant affordability challenges and are likely waiting for the market to bottom out.
Sondhi says pent-up demand “has yet to re-emerge as quickly as previously expected” in those provinces, suggesting further price declines may be needed.
The report forecasts a rebound for Canadian home sales in 2027 following improved economic and job market conditions, which could lead to growth in the national average price.