While optimism is building in parts of Canada for a rebound in the real estate market, condominium owners hoping to move up to larger homes face tough choices amid little sign of improvement for that segment.
Cities like Toronto and Vancouver have seen condo sales drop off — if not stagnate — in recent years following a surge in new supply and plummeting investor demand.
In some regions, that diverges from the overall housing market. Many industry watchers now forecast a turnaround in the coming months after a first half of 2025 plagued by economic uncertainty, tariffs and job losses.
That’s left those hoping to leave condo life behind in a difficult position: sell now at a lower-than-anticipated value or wait out the storm.
“They’re kind of stuck,” said Victor Tran, a mortgage and real estate expert with Rates.ca.
“They hoped to bank on the appreciation of the condo in the coming years so they can pull that money out and use that as a down payment to upgrade to a larger home. But the money is just not there anymore.”
Since 2022, condo apartment sales have dropped by 75% in the Greater Toronto Area and 37% in the Vancouver area, according to a report last month by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Meanwhile, inventories have more than doubled and prices have fallen in those regions.
The national housing agency said the condo market is expected to remain weak as completions “remain near record levels and demand remains subdued.” It added there is little evidence price declines will reverse quickly “given the national and global economic outlook.”
“There are certain situations where sellers have just decided to hit the sell button and take a loss on their condos, unfortunately, and just move on,” said Adil Dinani, a Vancouver-based real estate agent with Royal LePage West Real Estate Services.
“There’s a lack of liquidity in the condo market, so that’s preventing potential move-up buyers from reallocating that money, or buyers from moving up in the market, potentially, because their condos aren’t worth what they expected them to be worth.”
A May report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed condo apartment sales in the GTA were down 21.7% in the first quarter of this year compared with the first three months of 2024. Meanwhile, new listings in the quarter were up 25.2% year over year.
Condo sales were down 2.5% last month on a year-over-year basis, roughly in line with overall home sales trends for the region. However, that followed a 25.1% drop in condo activity in May — far outpacing the decline in sales for other housing types.
That same month, detached home sales declined 10.6%, townhouses fell 9.8% and semi-detached homes ticked 0.3% lower from May 2024.
Toronto-area real estate agent Vy Ngo described the condo market as “brutal,” even as activity has started to stabilize for other properties.
“I have multiple condo listings right now. It’s very difficult to sell,” said Ngo, a sales representative with Big City Realty Inc.
“It will probably be trending down the rest of the year, into next year. It’s going to be awhile until it picks back up.”
In Greater Vancouver, there were 1,040 sales of condo apartments last month, a 16.5% decrease compared with June 2024. That was a steeper year-over-year decline than sales of detached houses, which were down 5.3%. Sales of attached houses were up 3.7%.
At the moment, Dinani said the sale price for a successful condo transaction depends on “who is the most motivated seller in the neighbourhood.”
“Some sellers are open-minded and are in a position where they want to sell and they’re committed to selling, and there are still buyers for those properties,” he said.
“But if you’re in a position where you have your mindset stuck on a certain price or a certain expectation and the market’s not supporting it, we’re just encouraging sellers to hit the brakes and find alternatives. So they’re staying in the home long term, renting the property out if their financial situation allows them to do so, and then revisiting it.”
Tran called it a “scary time” for people looking to upgrade to a larger home due to the risks of selling their current property — such as the possibility that finding a buyer could take much longer than expected.
While he said it’s safer to sell first and then make an offer on a new property, that also comes with the risk of not finding a place in time.
“A lot of people are wondering, like, ‘OK, when are we going to hit the bottom, when are we going to see some recovery and confidence put back into the market, when are we going to start seeing things turn around?’ No one knows,” said Tran.
“I, personally, don’t think it’s going to be any time soon.”