There was a barrage of positive economic reports released in the U.S. this morning.
The Commerce Department said retail sales rebounded in November, advancing 0.9% on the strength of higher demand for autos and electronics. Retail sales
“If you hear the faint sound of bells this holiday season, chances are it may be the sound of cash registers,” comments RBC Financial, noting that the previous month’s sales were also revised higher. And, for the second consecutive month, non-auto sales grew 0.4% during the month. “Year over year retail sales growth is now near 7%, pointing to at least the best holiday shopping season since 1999,” RBC says.
RBC adds “that fourth quarter consumer spending will probably not show the same degree of growth exhibited in the previous quarter when tax cuts powered U.S. shoppers. But we continue to expect growth in the 4% range given that business spending will lend a very solid helping hand,” RBC concludes.
The Labor Department said that prices of imported good rose in November amid the largest surge in consumer and capital goods prices in three-and-a-half years. Overall import prices grew at the fastest pace in four months, rising 0.4%. The jump was led by a surge in prices in consumer items and capital equipment, which rose 0.3%. Petroleum prices rose 1.1%.
.”There are some signs that a falling U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices are putting upward pressure on import prices. Certainly, rising producer prices (with the November release due tomorrow) are indicative of this and suggest that some pipeline inflation is beginning to build in the U.S,” RBC notes.
In a separate release, the Labor Department said that the number of U.S. workers filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits rose to a six-week high last week. Initial jobless claims increased for a second week in a row, climbing by 13,000 to 378,000. Economists had expected a decline of 5,000.
“Cost cutting is still an important force,” notes BMO Nesbitt Burns “However, there is no question that the number receiving benefits is trending lower and the insured jobless rate is falling. The underlying job picture is improving, but just as the latest nonfarm payroll report showed, it’s not a one-way street.”
“The good news remains that an initial claims level under 400,000 is consistent with a stable labour market, however, the levels still do not point to a labour market is that is expanding fast enough to sufficiently lower the unemployment rate significantly. This point likely underlies the continuing cautiousness of the Fed and suggests no rate hikes until the second half of 2004,” RBC finds.
At noon ET, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago will release its October Midwest Manufacturing Index. At 14:00 ET the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes of its November meeting.
U.S. retail sales, import prices rise
Employment situation improving despite jump in jobless claims
- By: James Langton
- December 11, 2003 December 11, 2003
- 11:15