U.S. real GDP disappointed analysts with a 3.1% annualized gain in the third quarter.

CIBC World Markets says, “The result was about a half point shy of expectations, and the heavy reliance on an incentive-boosted auto sales boom doesn‚t bode well for the final quarter, given current signs of buyer fatigue in that sector.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns calls the number, “below expectations but still healthy”.

Consumers drove the gain, but large building projects are slumping. However, Nesbitt notes that high-tech capital spending “has already turned around and is in a steady upward trend”.

Nesbitt observes that, despite the global growth slowdown, U.S. trade remained on a relatively even keel. “This could turn into a worsening drag once the impact of the dock strike fades,” it says. “U.S. GDP looks surprisingly healthy in this summertime snapshot. Winter is approaching, however, and current trends suggest it’s going to be no day at the beach.”

CIBC says that the picture is fully consistent with its call for sub-2% growth in Q4, and at a 25 basis point Fed cut before year end. “Friday’s labor and purchasing managers data will say more about whether that cut comes in November or December.”

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm