The U.s. composite index of leading indicators rose by 0.4% in July to 112.5, according to preliminary estimates released Thursday by the Conference Board.

This was the fourth straight month that the leading index increased, suggesting that a recovery in the months ahead is well established.

Five of the 10 leading-indicator components increased in July. The largest positive contributors to the index were the interest-rate spread and stock prices. The most significant negative contributors were the average manufacturing workweek and the index of consumer expectations.

The index was equal to 100 in 1996.

“With export growth still months away, the burden now falls on consumer spending and business investment,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board. “The bottom line is that the leading economic indicators are more favorable than any time since the recession started more than two years ago.”

In a separate release, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said on Thursday its index of business conditions in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region shot up in August to 22.1 from 8.3 in July. The survey gives an indication of the strength of regional manufacturing in the U.S.