U.S. housing starts plunged 11% in February, although economists are giving the report vastly different readings.
Single-family starts were off 13.7%. Multi-family building managed only a small gain after big January losses, BMO Nesbitt Burns reports.
Typically, some are blaming the weakness on the weather. “Hefty declines in ‘good weather’ regions — the South and the West — strongly suggest that it was unusual weather that caused the big decline,” says BMO.
But, RBC says, “Dispelling any concerns that the sharp decline was a result of the harsh winter weather in the Northeast in February, the drop in housing starts was broad-based across the country.”
RBC points out that single family starts, which is seen as a more stable indicator of housing demand, dropped 14% in February and accounted for the sizeable drop in overall activity. “Although permits inched up by 0.4%, it failed to offset the sharper decline recorded in the previous month,” it says.
“With mortgage rates remaining at historic lows, today’s weak housing starts data suggests that the red-hot pace of housing activity south of the border may be on its last legs. Over the past year, housing starts have been running well-ahead of demographic requirements and this suggests that most of the demand for housing could very well be spent,” RBC offers.
“A poor figure from the Homebuilders’ February survey, released yesterday, will keep observers wondering whether housing has begun to decline. Unless mortgage rates jump sharply, that is not likely,” BMO comments.
Ultimately, BMO concludes that this was a “nothing number”, “completely ignored by the market both because it is not a reliable reading on the trend and because war concerns dominate at the moment.”
But RBC says that he numbers should help justify a further U.S. rate cut. “Markets are expecting the Fed to hold on its trend setting rate later this afternoon largely due to the uncertain geopolitical environment and the hesitancy to do anything too bold in the wake of the President’s address to the nation last night. Still, today’s housing starts report, together with February’s drop in retail sales activity combined with the abysmal performance of February payrolls data support our case for a 25 basis point cut later this afternoon.”