U.S. consumer inflation remains subdued despite a small rise in January. The consumer price index rose 0.5%, the fastest rate since February 2003, says the Labor Department. Higher energy prices accounted for 75% of that increase.
The core index, which excludes food and energy items, rose just 0.2%. Economists had expected a 0.3% gain in the overall index.
“Not to worry. At least, not yet. Looking at the 6-month annualized trend, inflation is clearly subdued,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns says. Core inflation was up 0.2% in the month. Nesbitt says that the overall leap reflected a 4.7% surge in energy costs, and tobacco prices jumped, too.
CIBC World Markets says that, despite the big monthly CPI gain, the 12-month inflation rate didn’t budge, “remaining at a comfortably low 1.9%”. And, the 12-month core rate is just 1.1% for the third month in a row.
“The data were two ticks firmer than we expected, with the core rate also a bit disappointing. Food prices are also holding on to more of their earlier gains than we anticipated. Still, headline inflation will fall sharply by the March figures, when gasoline prices should no longer be up on a year-on-year basis,” CIBC says.
Nesbitt says, “The Federal Reserve and the markets will not get too excited about this one-off jump in otherwise moribund U.S. inflation. Actually, the problem remains “inflation is too low” and the Fed has not fixed this yet.”
U.S. consumer inflation remains subdued
Higher energy prices lead to unexpected rise
- By: James Langton
- February 20, 2004 February 20, 2004
- 10:50