With Canada’s vaccination rate ramping up, the economy is on track for its strongest growth in 40 years, says National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF).
In a new research note, NBF reported that the gap between the vaccination rate — i.e., the proportion of the population that has received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine — in Canada and the U.S. has now been eliminated.
Canada is likely to take the edge in the months ahead, given a greater willingness to get inoculated north of the border. Recent polling showed that 82% of Canadians are willing to be vaccinated versus 67% of Americans.
“Though Canadians remain under public-health restrictions and the economy will probably finish the second quarter barely up, there are grounds for optimism about subsequent months,” the report said.
NBF predicted “an impressive growth rebound” for Canada in the second half of 2021 as shuttered services reopen.
“This month we have revised our forecast of 2021 growth up to account for a successful vaccination campaign and the widespread rise in commodity prices,” the report said. “Our forecast for nominal growth is now 10.4%, not seen in 40 years.”