The recent market turmoil may depress business and consumer confidence and slow global economic growth, exacerbating existing trends that have been causing corporate credit quality to deteriorate, suggests a new Moody’s Investors Services report.
The rating agency reports that a number of companies are trimming their spending plans due to increasing apprehension about the economic outlook and their future access to capital. It warns that a substantial pullback in business investment — when consumer spending is already flagging — could further slow the global economy, leading to a surge in bankruptcy filings by companies over the next year.
“Business and consumer confidence appear to have been shaken by recent events and might not recover for several quarters,” says Daniel Gates, Moody’s chief credit officer for corporate finance, and the lead author of the report.
Consumer spending is expected to be pressured by tighter lending standards as well as by fragile confidence, Moody’s says. The outlook for consumer spending is particularly weak in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, which collectively account for more than half of the world’s economic output. Consumer spending trends also appear to be slowing in other countries, including Australia, Singapore and South Korea, it notes.
No region is immune from a global slowdown, but Moody’s says that concerns are greatest for companies whose business is heavily reliant upon the European Union countries, Japan and North America, in which the pace of economic activity is visibly slowing. Weak growth in these mature markets may also be a drag on countries with high growth rates, such as China and India, affecting companies in those markets as well, it adds.
On a sector basis, companies whose business is dependent upon discretionary consumer spending are particularly vulnerable, according to the report. The damage may be most severe for already seriously ailing companies in consumer-oriented sectors such as housing, automobiles, consumer durables, restaurants, retail, apparel, gaming and airlines, it says.
“These companies are struggling with high leverage, disappointing cash flow and weak customer demand, which is already proving to be a lethal combination for many firms,” says Gates. “Recent events may make a bad situation worse by undercutting consumer spending and economic growth in the months ahead, which would push many more weak companies over the edge of the cliff.”
Moody’s also predicts that lenders will further tighten credit standards for corporate borrowers, severely limiting access to new financing that could stave off bankruptcy for troubled companies.
Recent turmoil may affect confidence: Moody’s
Tighter lending standards and fragile confidence are expected to impact spending heavily
- By: James Langton
- October 1, 2008 October 1, 2008
- 09:18