The parliamentary budget officer said Thursday he expects the coming fall budget will reveal a sharp increase in Ottawa’s deficit that puts the government’s previous fiscal anchors in jeopardy.
Ottawa’s fiscal watchdog, Jason Jacques, now projects the federal government will post an annual deficit of $68.5 billion this year, up from $51.7 billion last year.
He said in a new report that he expects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is no longer on a declining path over the medium term — a measure that previously was a key fiscal anchor for the federal government.
The office’s updated fiscal and economic outlook offers parliamentarians a baseline estimate of the state of federal finances heading into the Liberals’ fall budget on Nov. 4.
The PBO’s update does not include plans to incrementally ramp up defence spending to meet the updated NATO benchmark of 5% of GDP by 2035. It also does not factor in Ottawa’s announced plans to reduce public service spending over the next three years.
But the report accounts for some $115.1 billion in net new spending over five years announced by the government since the last fiscal update in December.
The office said an economy weakened by Canada’s trade war with the United States is dragging down Ottawa’s tax revenue and pushing deficits higher as the Liberals boost capital spending.
The PBO predicts real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, down from 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, in the office’s March outlook.
Nominal GDP, a measure of the federal government’s tax base, is projected to be $12.9 billion lower on average from 2025 to 2029 due to the lasting effect of tariffs.
The PBO says that with lower revenues and higher government spending, budget deficits will be $26.6 billion higher each year on average through 2029-30 than the projections in its March outlook.
The PBO expects deficits to decline slightly but remain close to $60 billion annually over the forecast horizon.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne on Thursday blamed the higher deficit on global trade disruptions.
“With everything that’s happened in the world, when you look at the deficit of Canada, a large part of that is in response to what has happened,” he told reporters on his way into a cabinet meeting.
Champagne said Canadians expect the government to support workers and shift the economy for future growth. He then entered the cabinet meeting and did not answer reporters’ questions about whether the PBO report was accurate.
Jacques has expressed doubts about whether Ottawa still has its “fiscal anchors” — benchmark metrics that show the federal government is responsibly managing its debt.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has insisted the federal government does still have fiscal anchors.
Champagne said Thursday the Liberals’ election promises to maintain a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio and balance the operating budget in three years account for the government’s fiscal anchors.
The PBO report shows that, after expanding to -2.2% this fiscal year from -1.7% last year, the deficit as a share of GDP is expected to shrink through 2029-30.
Projections for the deficit-to-GDP ratio in the PBO’s outlook are generally larger each year than those in the spring Liberal platform, which predicted a ratio of -1.96% this year.
The former Liberal government under prime minister Justin Trudeau used a declining debt-to-GDP ratio and a cap on the deficit of 1% of GDP as fiscal anchors.
The PBO says total debt as a share of GDP is no longer on a downward path and will rise to 43% over the medium term from 41.7% last year, as deficits routinely top 1% of GDP.
Jacques was named parliamentary budget officer on a six-month interim basis earlier this month, before the House of Commons began its fall sitting.
A permanent appointment must be approved by the House, and the Conservative party has pushed to keep Jacques in the role.
Jacques was scheduled to appear at the Commons committee on government operations and estimates Thursday to answer MPs’ questions.