Markets saw some encouraging economic news released in the U.S. Friday, with stronger durable goods orders, and mixed housing data.
U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.1% on the headline in June, up 1.4% excluding transportation. “Orders are now high enough to match ongoing shipments, leaving order books flat, as measured by unfilled orders. Our theory is that broad inventory cuts at this level of activity signal demand is stronger than supply and this leads us to imagine that the durable goods orders increase is a leading indicator of better factory activity in the rest of the year,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns.
:Overall, this report adds further weight to the optimists’ camp after yesterday’s positive news on labor market trends in the U.S. and supports our view that the stage is being set for a second half rebound in overall economic activity,” concluded RBC Financial. “The timing of the release makes this a highly relevant, market moving indicator that provides an early indication of what other indicators for business investment and consumer spending may look like.”
However, Nesbitt pointed out that seasonal factors such as factory shutdowns for retooling make this report “nearly useless”. “So, this is about all we get on factory orders that is reliable until late September,” it said. “This report is on the strong side and adds weight to the general trend in economic statistics toward better results. By itself, of course, one month’s improvement in volatile durable goods orders is nothing to write home about.”
In a separate release, U.S. new home sales surged 4.7% in June to a record 1.16 million units, annualized. “This figure beat market expectations and was more proof that the housing sector is still standing on a solid footing,” Nesbitt noted. “However, there are hints that rising mortgage rates are beginning to nibble into activity. U.S. existing home sales dipped a bit.”
“Both new and existing home sales remain at elevated heights but are likely to slow in the months ahead as reflected in weakening data on mortgage applications,” RBC said. “While housing remains a firm underpinning of the U.S. economy, this morning’s update on new orders of durable goods nevertheless suggests that our view that future quarters would be marked by a recovery in business investment that coincides with slowing housing markets remains intact.”