The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) composite leading indicators (CLIs) point to steady growth — but the emergence of the coronavirus epidemic now weighs on the outlook.
The OECD said that its latest CLI readings indicate steady, but below trend, growth for the OECD area in the coming months. However, the organization noted that these indicators were compiled based on data collected before the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency stemming from the spread of the coronavirus.
“It is not yet possible to account for the potential negative impact of this epidemic on world activity, particularly on the supply chain and tourism,” the OECD said.
“Before the coronavirus epidemic, signs of a possible positive change also seemed to emerge in China,” it added.
In the short-term, the OECD said there’s now a “high degree of uncertainty.”
In the other emerging economies, the CLIs signalled consolidation of growth in Brazil, stable growth in Russia and weakening growth in India.
For the developed markets, outside of the impact of the coronavirus, the OECD said that stable growth remains the assessment for Canada, Japan and the euro area (particularly in France and Italy).
For the U.S. and U.K., “the CLIs indicate a possible positive change in growth while remaining below trend,” the OECD said.