The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development reports that the latest composite leading indicators (CLIs) point strongly to a slowdown in economic activity throughout most OECD countries.
The latest data for May indicate a continued weakening outlook for all the major seven economies, except Japan and Italy. Overall, the CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.5 points in May, and was 4.6 points lower than in May 2007.
The CLIs try to provide early signals of turning points between upswings and downswings in the economic cycle through indicators comprised of data contained in a number of key short-term economic indicators known to be linked to GDP.
The CLI for the US fell by 0.4 points in May, and it was 4.9 points lower than a year ago. Canada’s indicator decreased by 0.8 points in May, putting it 3 points lower than the prior year.
The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 0.5 points in the month, and it stood 4.3 points lower than a year ago. The indicators for France, Germany and the UK slipped. For Italy, the CLI increased by 0.2 points in May but that still leaves it 3.3 points lower than a year ago.
Similarly, Japan’s CLI increased by 0.5 points during the month, but it was down 4.9 points than a year ago.
The latest data for major OECD non-member economies tentatively point to expansion in China, a downturn in Brazil and India, and continued expansion in Russia, it noted.
Leading indicators signal slowdown for major OECD economies
- By: James Langton
- July 11, 2008 July 11, 2008
- 10:45