The latest survey of economists by the European Central Bank (ECB) shows that inflation expectations have edged up, while growth forecasts have been trimmed.
Headline inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 were revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively, in the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters, released on Tuesday.
Similarly, the forecasts for core inflation (excluding the food and energy components) were revised a bit higher too, it noted.
Longer-term expectations for headline inflation were unchanged at 2.0%, the ECB said.
At the same time, real GDP growth expectations were revised down by 0.1 points to 0.9% this year, and 1.2% in 2026.
The impact of higher tariffs and increased defence spending in Europe were the “main factors” behind the changes to economists’ inflation and growth expectations, the central bank noted.
The latest edition of the quarterly survey was carried out between April 1 and 4, with economists from both financial and non-financial institutions.