The outlook for the global economy may be brightening, with the latest composite leading indicators signaling a possible change in momentum to the upside, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
The OECD says its composite leading indicators, which are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to a positive change in momentum for the OECD as a whole, driven primarily by the U.S. and Japan. Below trend growth is still indicated for Canada, and the rest of the G7 countries.
But, along with the U.S. and Japan, similar signs of a positive turn are also beginning to emerge in a number of other economies, the OECD reports. It notes that the CLIs for India and Russia also show signs of an upward change in growth momentum.
The CLIs for all other major OECD economies, the Euro area and Brazil continue to point to below trend growth. Yet the OECD notes that tentative signs are emerging that the recent deterioration in CLIs is moderating, and the CLIs for seven of the fifteen countries in the Euro area are now pointing towards a positive change in momentum, it says.
However, the CLI for China points more strongly to a slowdown this month than in last month’s assessment.