The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates at their lowest level in 45 years. But the central bank omitted its pledge to leave rates low for a “considerable period” from the statement accompanying its decision.
The Fed has held its target for the U.S. federal-funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, at 1% since late June.
Wednesday’s decision by the Fed’s monetary-policy panel — the Federal Open Market Committee — on its benchmark rate came as no surprise to economists, in light of the minuscule 1,000 jobs added to the nation’s payrolls in December. For the past six months, economists have said that a clear improvement in the labor market, coupled with a rise in inflation, would be necessary for the Fed to begin raising interest rates.
Economists agree that by dropping the “considerable period” phrase from its policy statement, the Fed is signaling that hikes could come sooner than expected.
Bank of Montreal says that the, “change in phraseology, though insignificant in a linguistic sense, likely means that policymakers are contemplating raising rates a little sooner than was the case in December. This is consistent with our view that the Fed will begin tightening credit in August to gradually return policy to a more neutral setting.”
“In our view, the message is that the Fed has shifted its focus to the onset of the next tightening cycle, while acknowledging that the first rate hike may still be several months away,” TD Bank agrees.
“The Fed made reference to that brightening economic outlook today, and downplayed concerns about slow employment growth, noting that, while ‘new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labour market’,” TD says. “Accordingly, we are still comfortable with our call that the Fed will begin raising interest rates at the August 10 FOMC meeting, moving in 25-basis-point increments and delivering a total of 100 basis points of rate hikes by year-end. That will leave the Fed funds rate at 2% — still 250 basis points below neutral, and thus still at a setting that will continue to be supportive of the U.S. economy’s ongoing recovery.”
BMO Nesbitt Burns is more cautions, saying, “The Fed is signaling to the markets that it will refrain from tightening policy for some time yet. How much time is anybody’s guess, given that the Fed will await the incoming data to decide. Whether that means no action throughout the remainder of this year is uncertain.”
It notes that, “The waters are that much murkier because of the Presidential election. Many suggest that the Fed would be reluctant to move beyond the August 10th meeting, for fear of seeming too political, especially to the Republicans. For sure, we will have to see meaningful signs of stepped up hiring for the Fed to be enticed to raise rates by September.”
“Clearly, if the Fed is going to err this cycle, it is going to be on the side of remaining too accommodative for too long, rather than prematurely snuffing out the rapid expansion,” Nesbitt concludes.
The next meeting of the FOMC is scheduled for March 16.
Fed stands pat on U.S. rates
Drops pledge to keep rates low for "considerable period"
- By: James Langton
- January 28, 2004 January 28, 2004
- 17:20