BCA Research says that the looming end to rate hikes in the U.S. bodes well for U.S. stocks, but it still may not be enough to match global markets.

“An end to Fed tightening augurs well for U.S. equities, but outperformance vs the global benchmark may require rate cuts,” BCA suggested in a research note.

“The US equity market has significantly lagged the global index in the past two years as the Fed has steadily raised interest rates, as is typically the case. Will the U.S. thus begin to outperform once the Fed is finished?,” BCA asked.

The historical record on this question is unclear, it noted: “U.S. profits would get a boost if the dollar declines once the Fed stops hiking, but a weaker dollar would also erode U.S. stocks’ relative performance in common currency terms. … History indicates that the case for U.S. outperformance is stronger if the Fed were to begin cutting rates, although it is premature to bet on this scenario.”