Exporter confidence rose slightly during the last six months, but many remain cautious about sales growth this year, according to the latest survey by Export Development Canada.

“We’ve been forecasting that 2004 would be a year of synchronized growth for the global economy,” says EDC VP and chief economist Stephen Poloz. “Exporter sentiment is more bullish than six months ago because of positive economic news, but the survey also shows Canadians are concerned about the potential implications of a rising dollar on their sales volumes.”

EDC’s latest Trade Confidence Index (TCi) reading is 74.8 out of a possible 100 points, an increase of 1.5 points from the 73.3 registered in the spring of 2003.

While confidence in the domestic and global economies rose, this improvement has not so far translated into expectations of stronger export sales, which remain about the same as six months ago. Overwhelmingly, exporters cited concern over the rising Canadian dollar as one of the primary reasons for their caution. Indeed, 90% of exporting companies view the value of the dollar as pivotal to their success in foreign markets.

Companies in nearly all industry sectors expressed greater trade confidence, with base and semi manufactured goods, information technology and transportation posting the most impressive gains, while the ban on Canadian beef and sluggish demand for consumer goods kept confidence levels unchanged by companies in the agri-food and consumer goods sectors.

The survey also found that Canadian businesses have become even more bullish in their hiring intentions with 34% planning to add staff in the next six months, compared to 30% last spring.

EDC Economics expects the global economy to expand by 4% in 2004 compared with 3.3% in 2003. Growth is expected to be balanced around the world: 4.5% in the U.S., 3.6% in Canada, 6% in Asia, 4.5% in Central & Eastern Europe and Russia, 2% in Western Europe and 1.2% in Japan.

The TCI is based on a random sample of 1000 Canadian companies, representing a cross-section of industry, regions and size of business. The latest reading is 74.8 out of a possible 100 points, an increase of 1.5 points from the 73.3 registered in the spring of 2003. It is a composite score based on five questions asked twice a year.

Opinion Search Inc. conducted the survey in November. The survey results are considered accurate to +/-3%, 19 times out of 20.