National Bank Financial is throwing cold water on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board could raise rates soon in response to the recent strong jobs numbers.

“In reaction to the unexpected strength of job growth in March, the market for fed funds futures is anticipating a Fed tightening much earlier that it previously projected,” said NBF senior economist Yanick Desnoyers in a new report.

“But this market has a poor forecasting record. Only contracts maturing in three months or less are of any use in predicting Fed moves,” he added.

Desnoyers said that past Fed practice suggests that “a rate rise before the November presidential elections would require job growth of 300,000 a month for six months.”

“Any pre-election Fed surprise is likely be caused by a resurgence of inflation or inflation expectations, not by job growth,” he said.