Most economists are leaning toward another 25 basis point hike when the Bank of Canada announces its decision on interest rates this week.

HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc. says that the balance of opinion in the Canadian market is looking for the Bank to hike rates at this meeting by 25 bps. However, it says, “The financial capital is reflecting a lot less confidence in that view than what was expressed on the back of the April Monetary Policy Report which was widely interpreted as having raised the bar on the hawkish language by a degree or two.”

TD Securities notes that recent economic data and an appreciating currency have “seriously reduced” the odds that the Bank of Canada will pull the interest-rate trigger next week, and it believes that a solid case can be made for the Bank to move to the sidelines.

That said, TD concludes, “We still believe that the odds are ever so slightly tilted towards a 25 bps move Wednesday, but it will be the last.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns says that, “It’s been a while since a pending Bank of Canada rate announcement has been as mysterious.” It also still expects a quarter-point move.

“Should the Bank of Canada signal a pause, it would stand in contrast to where these other central banks are currently leaning, which could have further negative implications for the loonie. We’ll just have to wait and see how this mystery ends,” it concludes.

“We lean slightly towards a quarter-point hike, which would boost the Canadian dollar and raise short term money market rates,” says CIBC World Markets. “We expect a contained bond and equity market reaction either way, since a pause on rates would be accompanied by a warning that more could still be on the way.”