Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung to a surplus in September for the first time since January as exports shot higher and imports pulled back.
Statistics Canada reported Thursday a merchandise trade surplus of $153 million for September, compared with a trade deficit of $6.4 billion in August.
CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said the reading was better than consensus expectations, but noted there’s still plenty of hurdles for Canadian trade.
“Moreover, Q3’s modest rebound in exports was partly a result of second-quarter trade flows falling lower than the underlying trend due to tariff front running in the first quarter,” Grantham wrote in a note to clients.
“As a result, it wouldn’t be a surprise if export performance weakened again during the fourth quarter, before seeing a more sustainable recovery later next year.”
A key hurdle for Canadian trade will be the future of the free-trade agreement with the United States and Mexico — often referred to as CUSMA — that is set to come up for review next year.
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. increased to $8.6 billion in September from $6 billion in August as exports to the U.S. rose 4.6% and U.S. imports fell 1.7%.
Overall, Statistics Canada said total exports rose 6.3% in September to $64.2 billion, its largest percentage increase since February 2024.
Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products increased 22.7% as exports of unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals, and their alloys — a category largely composed of unwrought gold — increased 30.2%.
Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys also rose 18.6%, however despite the increase they were still down 16.7% from September 2024.
Exports of energy products rose 5.8%, boosted by higher volumes of crude oil, while exports of aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts gained 23.4%, helped by higher shipments of private jets to the U.S.
Meanwhile, overall imports fell 4.1% to $64.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 27.8% in September.
The move came as imports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys fell 72.5% after imports of unwrought gold from South Africa and Switzerland were seen in August but did not repeat in September.
Imports of consumer goods fell 6% in September, as imports of pharmaceutical and medicinal products fell 13.8%.
In real or volume terms, total exports rose 4.1% in September, while imports fell 3.3%.
In a separate report, Statistics Canada said the country’s international trade in services surplus was essentially unchanged at $200 million in September as imports of services rose 0.8% to $19.8 billion and exports of services increased 0.7% to $20 billion.
When international trade in goods and services are combined, Canada’s total trade balance with the world posted a surplus of $327 million in September compared with a deficit of $6.3 billion in August.