The euphoria of the September jobs report was offset somewhat by another report that Canadian companies exported 3.8% less to the world, while imports plunged 5.9%, the largest monthly percentage drop since December 1991.
Still, the international trade surplus surpassed analyst forecasts, increasing to $5.2 billion in August. Markets expected just a $4.4 billion reading.
The power outage that left much of Ontario and parts of the United States in the dark in mid-August was a significant factor in sharp declines in merchandise imports and exports for the month.
“Short-circuited by an Ontario power outage, and subsequent energy conservation efforts, Canadian trade flows were downright anemic in August,” CIBC World Markets comments. “Controlling for price movements left the real volume of merchandise exports down 4.3%in the month — a rate of decline matched once, but never exceeded in the past half decade. Real goods exports have now fallen for three straight months, and versus year-ago levels, are off more than 8%.”
“This release offers a bit of a heads-up when it comes to next week’s manufacturing shipments report as well as the month-end GDP tally for August. The distortions caused by the blackout are consistent with our view that July’s impressive 0.6% monthly GDP gain was at least partially reversed in August,” CIBC says. “Allowing for a rebound in September, as lost output was made up, third quarter growth looks to be running a little under 3%. Meanwhile, through two months of the quarter, the nominal goods balance is running right in line with the Q2 average.”
“Today’s trade data will likely get overlooked by markets, especially in the face of the strong labour report, and because of the distortions created by the power outage,” concludes RBC.”
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/031010/d031010b.htm
Blackout dims August foreign trade numbers
Plunge in imports boosts Canadian trade surplus
- By: James Langton
- October 10, 2003 October 10, 2003
- 10:20