Both inflation and real GDP growth expectations were revised slightly higher in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest survey of professional forecasters.
On Friday, the central bank reported that its survey of economists for the fourth quarter, which was carried out from Oct. 1–7, found that headline inflation expectations for 2025 ticked up to 2.1% from the previous forecast of 2%.
The modest increase mainly reflected “recent incoming data,” the ECB said — however expectations for 2026 and beyond were unchanged at 1.8% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) expectations also edged higher for 2025, it noted.
Economists’ GDP growth expectations also ticked up to 1.2% for 2025, but remained unchanged at 1.1% in 2026, and 1.4% for 2027.
“Tariffs expected to have a downward impact on real GDP growth, particularly in the nearer term,” the ECB said.
Finally, the survey found that expectations for the jobless rate remained unchanged.
“The unemployment rate is expected to average 6.3% in 2025 and 2026 and then to fall to 6.2% in 2027, where it is expected to remain in the longer term,” it said.