“The conventional wisdom these days seems to be that if you blinked, you missed this recession. Some even argue there was no recession. They say there is a new economy, in which business now adjusts much faster than it once did, partly because it has better and quicker information on which to base decisions. Others say productivity growth will keep up because of heavy investment in high technology in the late 1990’s. Others suggest that the embrace of free markets has simply made the economy more efficient; keep government out,” writes Jeff Madrick in today’s New York Times.
“But in fact, a closer look at the data shows that it was a typical recession by most measures, especially in terms of jobs lost. By some measures, it even lasted longer than other recessions. And the greatest irony is that it may well have been worse except for the government’s reaction to the events of Sept. 11. Aggressive monetary and fiscal policy restored growth. The government apparently bailed us out.”
“The confusion begins with our overreliance on the gross domestic product — the annual amount of goods, services, business investment and government spending — as the arbiter of recession. Its other side is the nation’s income: wages and salaries, profits, interest and rent. But G.D.P. doesn’t tell us how many people have jobs or whether they are working longer. It doesn’t tell us how much was borrowed to support capital spending or consumption. But if G.D.P., discounted for inflation, falls for two quarters, we are told we are in a recession.”
“This time around, G.D.P. fell only briefly. Over the course of the recession, which began in March 2001 and possibly ended late this winter, G.D.P. after inflation fell only 0.34 percent, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The shallowest recession before this was in 1969 and 1970, when G.D.P. dipped 0.61 percent. The worst, by this measure, was the 1973-75 recession, when G.D.P. fell 3.4 percent.”
“But now let’s look at employment. Jobs were lost at a far faster pace than the modest fall in G.D.P. suggests. According to the government’s monthly payroll survey, the nation has lost about 1.4 million jobs since March 2001 — more than in three of the six other recessions since 1960.”
“A better way to look at it is in percentage terms because the job market grows. Even so, the number of jobs fell 1.1 percent from March 2001 to last February. In other words, employment fell at three times the rate of the fall in G.D.P. This never happened before. In all recessions since 1973-75, employment fell about as much as G.D.P. In 1981-82, for example, jobs declined by 2.8 million, or about 3 percent, while G.D.P. fell 2.9 percent.”
Government needs to prime the pump
Aggressive monetary and fiscal policy restored growth
- By: IE Staff
- April 18, 2002 April 18, 2002
- 08:15