The government’s proposed 25% hike to the GST credit from 2026 to 2031, with a one-time 50% bonus this year, is estimated to cost $12.4 billion over the six years, the Parliamentary Budget Officer found.
Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that the measure, branded as the “Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit,” intends to help lower-income consumers deal with the high cost of groceries across the country.
As of Monday morning, the bill is still in first reading at the House of Commons.
The one-time 50% GST bonus, expected to disburse in July, will cost the government $3.13 billion. Thereafter, the cost of the 25% increase will rise from $1.77 billion in the 2026-27 fiscal year to $1.92 billion in 2030-31.
The PBO indexed the gradual increase to projected consumer price index inflation numbers for years 2026 to 2029 from September 2025 estimates. The cost in 2030 was projected using the GST credit’s average growth rate over 2026 to 2029.
The estimate didn’t include the additional cost of automatic federal benefits for lower-income Canadians proposed in Budget 2025.
The GST credit boost wasn’t a part of the Liberal Party’s 2025 campaign platform costing plan, which at the time was estimated to add $219 billion of federal deficit over the 2025-29 four-year mandate.