U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened the door ever so slightly to lowering a key interest rate in the coming months but gave no hint on the timing of a move and suggested the central bank will proceed cautiously as it continues to evaluate the impact of tariffs and other policies on the economy.
In a high-profile speech closely watched at the White House and on Wall Street, Powell said there are risks of both rising unemployment and stubbornly high inflation. That puts the Fed in a tough spot because it would typically cut its short-term rate to boost hiring while keeping it high — or raising it — to fight inflation.
“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labour market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said in prepared remarks, suggesting the Fed will continue to evaluate jobs and inflation data as it decides whether to cut rates, including at its next meeting Sept. 16-17.
“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” he added, a more direct sign that Powell is considering a rate cut than he has made in previous comments.
Still, Powell’s remarks suggest the Fed will proceed cautiously in the coming months and make its rate decisions based on how inflation and unemployment evolve in the coming months. That may frustrate financial markets, which have hoped for clearer signals of the Fed’s next moves, and President Donald Trump, who has criticized Powell for not lowering rates sooner.
Powell spoke at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., a conference attended by about 100 academics, economists and central bank officials from around the world.
His remarks came as markets largely expect a rate cut in September, according to futures pricing, though the odds have slipped this week. Trump has repeatedly called for cuts, arguing there is “no inflation” and saying that a cut would lower the government’s interest payments on its US$37 trillion in debt.
Trump and his allies have ramped up attacks on the Fed, including this week by calling on a Fed governor, Lisa Cook, to resign, after a Trump official alleged she may have committed mortgage fraud.
Tariffs, inflation and jobs
In his remarks, the Fed chair underscored that tariffs are lifting inflation and could push it higher in the coming months. He also suggested that the job market isn’t clearly weakening in a way that would push the Fed to reduce borrowing costs, which can boost growth and hiring.
“The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts,” Powell said.
Inflation has crept higher in recent months though it is down from a peak of 9.1% three years ago. Tariffs have not spurred inflation as much as some economists worried but are starting to lift the prices of heavily imported goods such as furniture, toys, and shoes.
Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July from a year ago, above the Fed’s target of 2%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%.
Regarding the job market, Powell noted that even as hiring has slowed sharply this year, the unemployment rate remains low. He added that with immigration falling sharply, fewer jobs are needed to keep unemployment in check.
Yet with hiring sluggish, the risks of a sharper downturn, with rising layoffs, has risen, Powell said.