Amid growing concern about downside economic risks, lending standards are tightening in Europe, while household worries around growth and inflation are rising, according to new data from the European Central Bank (ECB).
The central bank’s latest survey of bank lending for April found that banks tightened credit standards across all loan categories in the month, which was driven by growing concern about the economy, and declining risk tolerance.
The overall credit tightening was larger than expected, exceeded the historical average, and marked the most significant tightening since the third quarter of 2023, the ECB noted.
While mortgage lending standards tightened a bit, conditions tightened more significantly for consumer credit and other types of household lending, it said.
“Perceived risks to the economic outlook and lower risk tolerance of banks were the main contributing factors, with banks indicating … that geopolitical and energy developments exerted tightening pressure,” it said. It added that some banks also further tightened standards amid direct exposures to the conflict in the Middle East.
Looking ahead, the ECB said that banks are expecting credit standards to tighten further in the second quarter, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, energy market developments and higher funding costs.
In a separate release, the ECB also reported that consumer inflation expectations rose and economic growth expectations deteriorated in March.
“Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and expectations for inflation three years ahead, which both stood at 2.5% in February, increased in March to 4% and 3% respectively,” it reported.
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months also became more negative in the latest survey, the ECB said, with consumers now expecting -2.1% growth over the next 12 months, down from previous expectations of -0.9% growth.
At the same time, consumers’ expectations for the jobless rate rose, up to 11.3% in March, from 10.8% in February.
The consumer survey was carried out between March 5 and March 30.
The April bank lending survey was conducted between March 19 and April 7.