RBC Financial says that the latest economic data reveals signs of improvement in the U.S. economy.
U.S. vehicle sales increased to 16 million units in November from 15.3 million units the month before. “Although last month’s pick-up in auto sales is positive, a downward trend to sales activity is only being prevented by new dealer incentive packages. In November, auto sales began to pick up in the second half of the month thanks to the introduction of a number of new cashback promotions,” comments RBC.
“Clearly, the U.S. consumers’ steadfast desire to jump on incentives suggests that they have moved forward much of their intended purchases. As such, the contribution by consumers to the U.S. recovery process is expected to wane over the near-term as consumers draw back their purchases. Thus, the task of supporting growth will firmly be in the hands of businesses,” it says.
Nevertheless, RBC also notes that 4% third-quarter productivity growth in the U.S. was revised higher to 5.1%. “The stronger than anticipated growth during the period coupled with the steady pace of hours worked suggested that firms were doing more with less during the quarter. Meanwhile unit labour costs were revised lower during the third quarter, from 0.8% to -0.2%.”
And, the Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index beat consensus expectations, jumping to 57.4% for November. This represents a 4.3% increase over the previous month. “Beneath the headline number, strong gains were seen in the new orders and exports sub-components,” says RBC. “For the most part, other components were generally flat, with employment slipping marginally from 46.2 to 45.9.”
Finally, U.S. factory orders increased by 1.5% in October. “This was slightly below market expectations given the strength in last week’s durable good orders for October. The slightly disappointing number came from a downward revision to durable goods orders to 2.4% from 2.8%,” it says, noting that non-durable orders continued their gains, rising 0.6%.
“Taken together, these two releases provide some encouragement for the U.S. economic recovery. While the service sector continues to display stability, signs are emerging of some positive momentum in U.S. manufacturing. As such, the U.S. seems to be slowly emerging from its ‘soft spot’, concludes RBC.
Productivity gains, jump in factory orders bode well for U.S. recovery
Manufacturing sector showing positive momentum
- By: James Langton
- December 4, 2002 December 4, 2002
- 13:20