Over the first quarter of this century, forces like population growth, resource scarcity and ecological limitations have driven a great energy transition — from fossil fuels to renewables and energy efficiency technologies. In recent years, geopolitical tensions have complicated matters, pushing national security to the forefront of energy‑transition drivers.
A historic US$2.3 trillion was invested in renewable energy and clean technologies in 2025, an amount that is expected to grow in the years ahead. More than ever, power means power.
The relationship between economic growth and affordable energy is foundational. Yet our global energy system is built on a significant vulnerability: 80% of primary energy still comes from fossil fuels. These reserves are finite and are not spread evenly across the globe.
This reality has always split the world into centres of power and zones of dependency. But as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently argued, the rules-based order that middle powers like Canada relied on is no more.
The result is a new, deglobalized world where energy and other critical inputs do not move as freely. In response, a new geopolitical chessboard is emerging with nations pursuing starkly different strategies in the scramble for energy autonomy.
Resource-rich superpowers
A few resource-rich superpowers are reverting to a legacy playbook of imperialism, attempting to expand resource dominance through forceful seizures, gaining reserves that can later be used for leverage and coercion.
In contrast, countries like China have taken a different, more strategic approach. It recognized nearly a quarter-century ago that its growing dependence on foreign oil is a strategic vulnerability. Beijing has since executed a series of five-year plans focused on electrification.
The result today is China’s commanding dominance of global supply chains for solar, advanced batteries and electric vehicles, which now account for half of all cars sold domestically. The State Grid Corporation of China recently announced a 4-trillion RMB investment in ultra-high voltage direct-current transmission grids as part of the country’s five-year plan ending in 2030. That’s a 40% increase from the previous period.
Meanwhile, middle powers are charting their own courses. Canada holds an enviable position, with many of the metal reserves, like copper and aluminum, that enable electrification. Roughly 80% of our electricity is generated from low-carbon sources.
But while the recent establishment of a national projects office is a critical first step toward developing more of these resources, Canada’s project approval and permitting processes remain among the most restrictive in the world. Too many of these metals are still sent overseas for processing. Only time will tell whether Canada can fully optimize its resource potential.
Renewables-based electrification
Other middle powers, like Poland and the U.K. with their dwindling fossil reserves, are building energy independence through a rapid shift to renewables. Both countries are leaning heavily into offshore wind. For many nations, renewables-based electrification is the only viable path to long-term energy security.
Even oil-rich nations are building more sustainable electricity systems. Saudi Arabia used to burn more than a million barrels of oil a day to produce electricity — oil that could have been exported. By 2030, the country wants half its electricity to come from solar, with the other half coming from base-load natural gas generation. It has invested heavily in projects like the massive Al Shuaib solar plant.
Because wind and sun are spread more democratically across the world’s 195 countries, electrification promises to make the world safer. Remarkable innovations have driven down clean technology costs. While the transition was kickstarted by early policy support, many of these technologies are now economically competitive, requiring little more than a stable regulatory framework.
Economic breakthroughs are arriving just as global electricity demand is exploding, growing at nearly 4% annually — almost double the rate of primary energy supply.
The impact on the great energy transition is clear: threats have increased, but so have opportunities. National security has unequivocally become a key driver, guaranteeing that the steady increase of clean energy capital expenditures over the last decade will only accelerate, as capital continues to flow into building the real assets that a more geopolitically fragmented world desperately needs.
John Cook is senior vice-president, portfolio manager and co-lead of the Mackenzie Greenchip Team.