Ed Stelmach, Alberta’s new
premier, had been carving out a niche as a politician who’s perennially underestimated and thus — almost by definition — constantly outperforming expectations.

His come-from-nowhere victory in last November’s Conservative party leadership race stunned his opponents and many voters alike. But what does Stelmach’s outperformance of those underestimates actually mean? Is he doing a good job, or had expectations been ratcheted down so far that he’s actually under-performing any historical standard? Stelmach’s first budget, which came out April 19, was the first substantial indication.

Non-Albertans who even noticed our leadership race probably found it strange. On the one hand: a brash, confident, booming province, migrants pouring in, companies reporting billions in quarterly profits, and cities full of Mercedes Benzes commuting to and from the 5,000-square-foot, four-car-garage pile. On the other: a low-key, square-headed farmer from eastern Alberta wearing off-the-rack suits. Cognitive dissonance, as my first-year sociology professor would say.

Bringing Albertans back down to political earth is central to Stelmach’s schtick. As his aides point out, his campaign rode a wave of complaint from ordinary Conservatives that the party’s leadership had grown arrogant and impenetrable. Party resolutions were routinely ignored and decisions were made incomprehensibly and with bizarre timing by former premier Ralph Klein, who seemed at once whimsical and adrift. Stelmach’s “one big thing” has been accountability — reconnecting with ordinary people and making decisions openly.

The new premier soon introduced Alberta’s first lobbyist registry and ordered the so-called “blue book,” which lists government contractors, to be published quarterly. His ministers’ expenses and flight manifests are posted online monthly. Later this spring, “cooling off” legislation will be introduced, which puts distance between the time ministers and senior staff exit the government payroll, and when they can lobby or provide consulting services to the government. Following public stinks over consulting fees, ministerial travel and cushy post-cabinet sinecures in the later Klein years, these seem to be tactically sound moves.

Still, pretty modest in the big scheme of things. No giant steps so far. Some, such as National Post/Edmonton Journal columnist Lorne Gunter, quickly concluded Stelmach’s government was weak and inert: “The premier and cabinet confuse platitudes for vision, think the act of devising a plan is the same thing as having a plan and believe activity is as good as achievement.” They simply repeat promises to “manage growth pressures, provide safe and secure communities” and “act decisively.” Endlessly.

My concern is that Stelmach hasn’t shown he grasps the distinction between electoral positioning and strategic thinking. Will he be tough and shrewd enough to take on the feds, not to mention his own bureaucracy?

Exhibit “A” for me is Stelmach’s review of oilsands royalties. It made for great leadership politics — Stelmach’s rivals quickly aped him. But it struck me as weak and strategically unsound. To start, the government that crafted the system never bothered defending it — even though it’s working as advertised. Stelmach’s pandering furnished the cover for Ottawa to eliminate the accelerated capital cost allowance, the federal government’s contribution to spurring oilsands investment, and transfer this tax break to eastern manufacturers in the March 19 federal budget.

The real Stelmach finally started to emerge last month. His first budget’s title, Managing our Growth, was both eerily familiar and euphemistic. Despite being elected on the wave of discontent over Klein’s rudderless, “spendaholic” last few years, Stelmach opted simply to hurl more billions into the insatiable government maw. The increase — 10% or $3 billion — is even bigger than some of Klein’s budgets. Taxes actually go up. Sounds more like failing to manage the never-ending growth in government. It seems that Stelmach has finally lived down to his reputation. IE



George Koch is a Calgary-based freelance writer. More of his writing can be found at www.drjandmrk.com.