The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index saw an unprecedented 15 point jump today.
After a small dip in February, the Index climbed to 110.2 up from 95 in February.
Both key barometers increased. The Present Situation Index rose from 96.4 to 111.5. The Expectations Index increased from 94.0 to 109.3.
“Consumers’ confidence has been bolstered by the improvement in business and labor market conditions,” says Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “The latest gains are striking. The jump in the Present Situation Index is the largest gain experienced in 25 years, while the Expectations Index has not risen this sharply in nearly a decade. This new boom in confidence should translate into increased consumer spending and stronger economic growth ahead.”
Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved significantly in March. Those rating business conditions as “good” increased from 17.6% to 20.7%. Consumers rating current business conditions as “bad” dropped from 22.8% to 18.1%. Consumers reporting jobs were “plentiful” rose from 18.2% to 20.6%. Those claiming jobs were “hard to get” fell from 22.6% to 20.8%.
Consumers’ expectations for the next six months are also more upbeat. Those expecting an improvement in business conditions increased from 22.3% to 25.0%. Those anticipating conditions to worsen declined from 11.1% to 6.3%.
The employment outlook has also brightened. Some 20.6% of all consumers expect more jobs to become available over the next six months, up from 18.3% last month. Those expecting fewer jobs fell from 19.5% to 13.6%. About 22% expect their incomes to increase, up from 20.5% in February.
Commenting on the jump, BMO Nesbitt Burns notes that the index is back up to pre-September 11 levels.
“Both current conditions and expectations were out of sight,” says BMO Nesbitt.
“It is often said that consumer spending does not correlate well with confidence, but a move of this magnitude is another story,” says BMO. “As long as households can find some money, their purse strings are loose and they stand ready to continue supporting the economy this spring. We regard the rise in U.S. consumer confidence as more indicative of the emerging strength of the economy compared to the decline in February durable goods.”
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO WorldGroup.
U.S. consumer confidence climbs sharply
Rising expectations should translate to increased spending
- By: James Langton
- March 26, 2002 March 26, 2002
- 15:50