This week brings a full schedule of Canadian economic news, but it’s quiet on the U.S. front.

The only U.S. data out this week is the leading indicator on Monday, and the good and services trade balance on Tuesday. “In the U.S., a largely no-news week lies ahead in terms of economic signposts, and the vast majority of the second quarter earnings news is now out of the way,” says CIBC World Markets. “That could provide a well-deserved summer respite from recent volatility.”

BMO Nesbitt Burns predicts that the trade deficit will narrow slightly to US$37 billion, “but remains as large as ever.”

The schedule is much fuller in Canada. The manufacturing survey for June is out today. Reports on merchandise trade and wholesale trade are due on Tuesday. The July Consumer Price Index release is slated for Wednesday. And, retail trade numbers come out on Thursday.

“In Canada,” CIBC says, “a very busy week for economic data will paint only a mixed picture for June economic activity, after a very poor May that left GDP flat for the month. The monthly gain in retail sales should look impressive on the surface, but is likely to fail to recoup the declines recorded for both total and ex-auto sales in May. Moreover, manufacturing and export results are likely to be disappointing, given the weakness seen in recent orders data and the hit from the start of lumber duties.”

BMO suggests that the next two weeks of Canadian economic data, should help to resolve the debate over what the Bank of Canada will do at its next rate-setting date on September 4. “Probably the most important indicator in the coming week is the CPI report for July on Wednesday, although this will also be surrounded by a slate of data on June activity.”

BMO predicts that the headline inflation rate will pop up to 2% in July from 1.3% in June. “However, the news on the core inflation front should be more benign. While this will put this key measure right back into line with the Bank’s target, there is still a good chance core inflation will temporarily bump higher later this year as very friendly results from late-2001 fall out of the calculation.”

BMO also sees shipments and exports slipping for the second month in a row. But it looks for retail sales to rebound. “Adding up the parts, it looks like total retail sales will rise 0.5%, reversing only a portion of May ’s slide.”

The highlight of the earnings schedule next week will be the first big bank reports. Royal Bank goes first, on Tuesday, joined by H&R REIT.

CIBC reports on Wednesday, as do ARC Energy Trust, Bonavista Petroleum, and the Viking Energy Trust.

TD Bank steps to the plate on Thursday, as does Caribbean Utilities Co., Cominar REIT and Zargon Oil & Gas. Halterm Income Fund reports on Friday.