The first quarter of 2002 is now over, and today may be a slow day, with many European markets closed for Easter Monday.

In Canada, it will be another light week for economic data. With the decks clear until Thursday’s Help Wanted Index. The big day will be Friday, with the all-important jobs reports out on both sides of the border. Economists will be keying on these for signs of rate hike timing.

TD Bank predicts 60,000 new jobs in the U.S. in March, with the jobless rate inching up to 5.6% to reflect higher labour market participation. In Canada, it sees a net increase of 5,000 workers expected in March. “The unemployment rate is expected to have remained steady at 7.9% in the month,” it says.

BMO Nesbitt burns agrees with TD’s take on Canada, but expects to see a 25,000 decline in March payrolls in the U.S., and a 0.1% rise in the jobless rate. “Hiring surveys caution against believing labour markets are going to return to a full measure of health soon,” it says. “We believe the pace of factory layoffs is winding down, with anecdotal evidence of a new-found pulse at temporary help companies a good leading indicator of that emerging recovery.”

The rest of the week will be busier in the U.S. The ISM (formerly NAPM) report will be out on Monday. Tuesday brings factory orders, and Wednesday is the non-manufacturing ISM index. On Thursday, initial claims data will be out. “The ISM headline will likely stay above the 50 mark and a further energy-boosted increase in the low prices-paid index could take place,” predicts BMO Nesbitt Burns.

“The ISM index will likely reveal continued expansion in manufacturing activity in March, with increases in the production and new domestic and export orders sub-indexes driving the gain,” says TD Bank. “However, given the fragility of the recent rebound in the manufacturing sector, manufacturers are unlikely to have added significantly to their payrolls in March nor will they have picked up the pace of inventory building.”

The earnings schedule looks virtually barren for the week.